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Att ha med Vänsterpartiet i samarbetet mellan S och Miljöpartiet inför valet var fel. Sahlin ville inte ha med Lars Ohlys parti. Hon blev tvingad till det av sitt partis vänsterflygel. Det rödgröna samarbetet blev därmed ett misslyckande. Hur ska man se på Sahlins tal? Det är ingen hemlighet att Sahlin varit en S-politiker som legat åt höger i partiet. Som partiledare var hon dock tvungen att placera sig mer i mitten i partiet. Med innehållet i talet knyter Sahlin an till sin tidigare högerposition i S.

Och hon är i talet mer av en debattör om partiets inriktning än en enande partiledare. S som ett mittenparti är emellertid något som på kort sikt har god chans att krossa Reinfeldts moderatledda alliansregering. För så här är det: Med ett närmande till mitten skulle S bli mer attraktivt för de där villaägarna i större städer med inkomster en bit över snittet. Det skulle leda till väljarvinster för S, från M. Men det skulle inte givet leda till ett större S-parti. Det ger dock med säkerhet en annan sorts parti, ett mer socialliberalt.

I andra änden skulle nämligen S tappa väljare. Bland de där som Sahlin tycker att S talat för mycket om: En del av dem skulle gå till Vänsterpartiet, några kanske till Sverigedemokraterna. Men många skulle bli valskolkare i protest mot att S överger dem.

Ett högerförnyat S skulle få, säg, 28 procent. Men partiet erövrar mitten i svensk politik med sitt program och genom vunna röster från M-ledda alliansen, som då hamnar på mindre än 45 procent. Sverige har länge, om än med undantag av Ny Demokratis korta karriär, klarat sig från den främlingsfientliga missnöjeshöger som grasserar i de flesta europeiska länder.

Att Sverige så länge undslapp eländet har sin grund i att den svenska välfärdsstaten och den svenska modellen länge upprättade starka försvarslinjer mot det slaget av missnöje. En bra a-kassa, en bra generell välfärd och dessutom starka fackföreningar - detta räddade oss länge.

När dessa försvarslinjer sakta men säkert vittrat ner och samtidigt de stora partierna rört sig mot mitten har det blivit lättare för extremhögern att vinna terräng. Och nu är Sverige alltså ungefär som de flesta andra länder i Europa. Extremnationalisterna i Sverigedemokraterna tar sig in i riksdagen - och utplånar en nationell särart! Detta var den historiska förändring som inträffade i gårdagens val. Den innebär ett stort nederlag för allt humant tänkande. Men Sverigedemokraternas entré i Riksdagen innebär också en oerhörd utmaning för de övriga partierna.

I skrivande stund - halv elva på söndagkvällen - pendlar det fram och tillbaka; nyss hade Sverigedemokraterna makten på gaffeln, sedan tappade de den. Men om - jag säger om - Alliansen inte får majoritet, ja, då kan den politiska situationen gå mot kaos denna höst. Bör Reinfeldt sitta kvar om han inte får parlamentarisk majoritet? Svaret på det är - Nej. I ett sådant läge borde det rimliga vara att regeringen Reinfeldt avgår och att en klassisk talmansrunda inleds där alla möjligheter till en hållbar och stabil majoritetsregering sonderas.

Givetvis vill den moderatledda regeringen sitta kvar i orubbat bo. Men skulle den de facto sakna majoritet innebär det att den måste stödja sig åtminstone passivt på Sverigedemokraterna. Det är en lösning som är moraliskt ytterst tvivelaktig och dessutom parlamentariskt oerhört skakig. Det är för tidigt att redan nu spekulera kring tänkbara lösningar, även om kremlologerna redan börjat sitt arbete. Men jag menar att det är av central vikt att sittande regering tar konsekvenserna av en eventuell majoritetsförlust och börjar agera efter det faktum att den inte har majoritet.

Allt annat innebär i själva verket att sätta viljan till makt före de demokratiska spelreglerna. På sikt är det enbart missnöjespartier som vinner på det. Hade all utrustning detonerat samtidigt hade det åstadkommit stor skada. Om det skett i en folksamling hade en katastrof uppstått. Platsen för dåden var centrala delarna av huvudstaden, nära köpstråk med stora mängder människor. Enligt uppgifter har ett meddelande skickats till bland annat nyhetsbyrån TT tio minuter innan detonationen.

Det hade innehåll som går ut på att attentatsmannen uttrycker missnöje med Sveriges militära närvaro i Afghanistan och den svenska konstnären Lars Vilks teckningar av den muslimska profeten Muhammed. Sammantaget indikerar fakta på att det rör sig om terroristdåd. Som sådant kan de anses amatörmässiga, eftersom bara en rörbomb sprängdes med begränsad effekt. På ett annat plan var det tur, eftersom inga blev allvarligt skadade utöver attentatsmannen. Samtidigt indikerar gärningsmannens bomb- och utrustningsarsenal, plats och meddelandet till TT att det är fråga om mer än en amatörs agerande eller ett vansinnigt påhitt.

Med denna bakgrund är det dags att analysera det inträffade, även om det gäller att vara restriktiv med spekulationer. De motiverades med de ländernas deltagande i Irakkriget. Om det stämmer att ett motiv för lördagens attentat är svenska deltagandet i kriget i Afghanistan och konstnären Vilks teckningar, som enligt många muslimer är provocerande mot deras religion, har Sverige politiska frågor att diskutera.

En är om vårt land ska delta i militära operationer som de i Afghanistan. Om vi ska utföra sådana finns risken att Sverige blir måltavla för vedergällning på liknande sätt som andra i Afghanistan krigförande länder. Man kan tycka att det är fel och att Sverige gör nytta i ett land som Afghanistan, men svenska folket måste ändå ta ställning till om de är beredda att betala det pris som det medför.

Sverige måste i så fall nämligen öka säkerhetsåtgärderna. De kostar mångmiljardbelopp och medför övervakning och intrång i mångas integritet.

Med detta kan det komma att tummas på de demokratiska rättigheterna. Vill vi i Sverige undvika risken för den typ av terror som är kopplad till sådant som vår militär närvaro i länder som Afghanistan måste vi dra oss ur sådana operationer. Nackdelen är att det ställer Sverige i sämre dager hos andra västländer, lämnar delar av befolkningen i landet i fråga med sämre skydd och att Sverige då ger efter för hot om terrordåd. Debatten om var yttrandefrihetens gränser ska sättas i relation till provokationer som Vilks teckningar av Muhammed kan också komma upp.

Det är viktigt att i terrorfrågan skilja på sak och person, och till och med grupp. Sakförhållandet är att ett sprängdåd utförts varvid gärningsmannen blev den enda omkomna.

Om gärningsmannen hade religiösa och politiska motiv och själv tillhörde en viss grupp etniskt och i andra avseenden går det inte att generalisera utifrån.

Bara för att en gärningsperson är vit, svart, muslim, ateist eller kristen säger det inte att alla vita, svarta, muslimer, ateister eller kristna är möjliga gärningspersoner att utföra liknande dåd.

Fel att sänka lönen för jobb. Något i Sverige har dött.

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